found the possible elements for you can choose which allocation you are most comfortable investing with according to your profile.First of all, it is It is important to understand the context of these choices. January finds Brazil amidst growth projections of less than 0.50% for the GDP in 2022, with inflation exceeding 5% and, consequently, an estimate of Selic (the basic interest rate of the economy) at 11.5% for control the rise in prices.2022 is also a period of expected volatility for the market: it is a election year. In addition, the country faces a high fiscal risk, mainly due to state spending on the pandemic crisis.In view of so many components, what are the opportunities and what are the challenges? “We are more sensitive to these themes. As there will be more volatility in the short term, the risk will naturally increase. For the ultra-conservative, who do not like risk and want to protect themselves, it is not enough to go to fixed income”, believes Wilson Barcellos, CEO of Azimut Brasil.
The tip from Barcellos to the conservative is to reduce the portfolio’s volatility level through short-lived and more predictable assets. This matches the perspective of Victor Licarião, leader of products and allocation in equities at Blue3, who recalls the importance of liquidity for short-term investments. That is, the possibility of being able to quickly redeem the application.
Licarião indicates post-fixed securities, linked to the rate of CDI (main reference for fixed income investments) or the Selic. This is the case of CDBs sold by banks, at rates above 100% of the CDI, or the Treasury Selic, a public security traded by the Treasury Direct. “Something quick, no risk, so you can have the money in your account on the same day”, he says.
For Barcellos, thinking about a not so short term, a post-fixed portfolio can be balanced with the Prefixed Treasury – another government paper available at Tesouro Direto – maturing in 2024.And for the bold investor, what is the suggestion? “Short-term investment does not enrich you. There is no comparative advantage in the very short term. Avoid buying structural assets and building your portfolio yourself. Opt for professional managers, with more technological capacity”, believes Barcellos.
CONTINUES AFTER THE ADVERTISING
Thinking about a distant horizon, more than ten years old, opens up a wide range of options. And, for Licarião, it is neither necessary nor desirable to choose just one path. “It has a perfect investment, which is called ‘diversification within the portfolio’, to get through these scenarios of greater turmoil in the best possible way”, he explains.
Blue3’s product leader sees interesting advantages in long-term fixed income, such as the IPCA+ Treasury, which offer interest rates in addition to inflation variation. These government bonds, with different maturities, are currently traded at rates above 5% per annum. For Barcellos, this allocation is ideal to minimize risks.
Anyone who has the stomach to withstand the high volatility can take advantage of opportunities in global multimarket, quantitative and macro funds, according to Licarião. “There is a lot of legal exposure to passive income with real estate funds , in addition to Fiagros [Fundo de Investimento em Cadeias Agroindustriais], something very new in the market”, he says.
Regarding the FIIs, both Licarião and Rodrigo Marcatti, founding partner of Veedha Investimentos, see potential in the corporate slab market, especially those located on Avenida Faria Lima, in São Paulo. “I see a lot of people leaving because of the CDI, when, in fact, it is a huge long-term opportunity. It’s an excellent time to buy,” says Marcatti.
That’s because, according to him, the funds are heavily discounted and the thesis that companies would operate only in home office – and no longer in the offices held by the FIIs – “it’s over”. Other than that and the real estate valuation, he explains that they are securities with a “natural protection against inflation”, because rental contracts are linked to price indices.
In addition to FIIs of corporate slabs, Marcatti indicates investing in funds for logistics warehouses – since the market is in a cycle of e-commerce expansion – and consolidated and mature malls, which are still they are cheap and have not been able to fully recover from the crisis caused by the pandemic. “Paper funds, making offers to acquire new bonds at this current interest rate, will even manage to improve the flow of dividends”, he observes.
On the Stock Exchange, Barcellos indicates allocating 50% of the amount destined to variable income in investments linked to the S&P 500, one of the main indices in the American market. The other half can be allocated to Ibovespa.
The investment can be made through equity funds, according to CEO of Azimut, who prefers these to ETFs, investment funds linked to indexes. “Active managers have had more satisfactory performances. In a ten-year window, the Ibovespa rarely surpassed the CDI. And good active managers gained from the Ibovespa and the CDI most of the time”, he observes.
“They are not regulated by the CVM [Comissão de Valores Mobiliários]. Today, tokens with defined profitability are already being offered, for companies’ debt, for a consortium quota”, he says. “They have risk, as well as fixed income and private credit. But it is a market that will start to grow and it is interesting to look at it.”
Where to Invest 2022: experts explain what to do with your money in year election in a free ebook! Read More